Latest Jobs Report: Cooked Or Correct?

“Unbelievable job numbers,” tweeted Jack Welch, the iconic former boss of General Electric on Friday morning, moments after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its September jobs figures. “These Chicago guys will do anything,” he continued. “Can’t debate so change numbers.”

Welch smelled conspiracy. And he wasn’t alone. “Total data manipulation,” tweeted a writer at Zerohedge, a financial news blog. “Such a farce.” Fox News spent much of Friday morning piling on.

The jobs numbers, unquestionably,gave a boost to the Obama campaign, still reeling from the president’s poor debate performance. While the bureau’s survey of businesses showed a ho-hum rise of 114,000 in nonfarm employment, the unemployment rate had somehow dropped from 8.1 percent in August to 7.8 percent, far exceeding expectations. Thus, a month before the election, and for the first time in Obama’s presidency, unemployment was under 8 percent.

Century Fox Report: US Job market worsens in August 2012.

It’s worth pointing out that the last time anyone accused the Bureau of Labor Statistics of being politically motivated was when Richard Nixon did so in 1971. Upset that the bureau was releasing figures showing higher unemployment during his re-election campaign, he asked his hatchet man, Charles Colson, to investigate the bureau’s top officials, including its chief, Julius Shiskin.

So Point No. 1: the idea that a handful of career bureaucrats, their jobs secure no matter who is in the White House, would manipulate the unemployment data to help President Obama, is ludicrous. Jack Welch knows it, too; when I called him Friday afternoon, he quickly backpedaled. “I’m not accusing anybody of anything,” he protested. But he went on to add that everything he’s seen suggests that the economy remains in the doldrums, and it just didn’t seem possible that the unemployment rate could have dropped so drastically, and so quickly.

Hence, Point No. 2: there is, indeed, something a little strange about the way the country derives its employment statistics. It turns out that the statistics the bureau releases each month are generated by two different reports. One, called the establishment report, is a survey of businesses. That’s where the 114,000 additional jobs comes from.

Century Fox News: American Issues at stake in Elections.

The second is a survey of 55,000 households, where people are asked about their employment status. Extrapolating from the survey, the bureau concluded that an additional 873,000 people had found work in September. It is that number that brought the unemployment rate from 8.1 percent to 7.8 percent.

When I asked a bureau spokeswoman why there was such divergence between the two numbers, she said she had no idea. “The reports are totally separate,” she said.

When I put the same question to economists, they shrugged. Maybe it was because an additional 582,000 Americans were working part time, which doesn’t show up in payroll statistics. Maybe it was because of increased government employment. For some unexplained reason, there is always an uptick in September. (“Maybe it has something to do with going back to school,” said Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics, who quickly added, “I’m just guessing here.”) In any case, it wasn’t anything economists hadn’t seen before. Sometimes the two surveys delink, though over the long term they tend to reinforce each other. In the short term, however, the household survey is considered the more volatile — and less reliable — of the two numbers.

Which leads to Point No. 3: there is something truly absurd about having the presidential race hinge on the unemployment rate. Even putting aside the reliability of the short-term numbers, the harsh reality is that no president has much control over the economy. That is especially true of President Obama, whose every effort to boost the economy these past two years has been stymied by Republicans. Again and again, they have shown that they would rather see the country suffer than do anything that might help Obama’s re-election.

There is rough justice in the way things are playing out. Having spent the last year wrongly blaming the president for high unemployment, Republicans can only stand by helplessly as the unemployment rate goes down at the worst possible moment for them. Fox News scoured the data Friday, looking for signs that the economy wasn’t improving. They found some: high unemployment for African-Americans, for instance, and fewer manufacturing jobs.

But the data were largely overwhelmed by positive signals. In its revised figures for July and August, for instance, the bureau said that more jobs had been created than it originally estimated. People with only high school degrees were finding jobs. The number of people who had been out of work for six months or more was at its lowest point in three years.

Whether the Republicans like it or not, the economy is slowing getting better.

Awful, isn’t it?

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Mitt Romney: "I Will Create 12 Million Jobs" (Video)

Following his strong debate performance, GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney released a new ad Thursday saying he would create 12 million jobs if elected.

"Let me tell you how I will create 12 million jobs when President Obama couldn't," says Romney. "First, my energy independence policy means more than three million new jobs. Many of them in manufacturing. My tax reform plan to lower rates for the middle class and for small business creates seven million more."

"And expanding trade, cracking down on China, and improving job training takes us to over 12 million new jobs."

Romney provides few specifics to back up his claim. And a white paper by his economic advisers shows that it would mean growth of between 200,000 and 300,000 jobs per month, less than the 500,000 Romney has said would occur monthly during a "normal recovery."

Century Fox Reports: Will Fairness win the Debate and the Elections?

Still, the ad appears to be an attempt by Romney to refocus the election on the issue that he thought would be a slam-dunk for him as a former businessman -- jobs. He had moved away from that message in the summer, instead running ads on a debunked welfare claim and accusing President Barack Obama of declaring a "war on religion."

The Obama campaign has hammered Romney as an outsourcer of jobs for his tenure at the helm of Bain Capital, and argued that a leaked video of him saying that 47 percent of Americans are "dependent on government" showed he doesn't care about the plight of the jobless. A Reuters poll released Wednesday showed Obama with a 7-point advantage on jobs.

The Romney campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the size of the ad buy or where it was running.

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American Job Market Worsens: August Report

American employers cut back sharply on hiring last month, crushing hopes that the job market was improving and putting more pressure on the Federal Reserve to give the sluggish economy another jolt.

The Labor Department said Friday that employers added just 96,000 jobs in August, down from 141,000 in July and too few to keep up with population growth. The unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent from 8.3 percent, but only because many people gave up looking for work and therefore weren't counted in the government's calculation.

The percentage of Americans in the workforce dropped to its lowest level in 31 years.

The latest numbers were "downright dismal," TD Economics senior economist James Marple said in a description echoed by many others.

The economy remains hobbled in the aftermath of the deepest recession since the 1930s and simply isn't expanding fast enough to spark more hiring. Consumers, whose spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, have been whittling down debts and spending cautiously. The government reported last week that economic growth clocked a disappointing 1.7 percent annual pace in the April-June quarter.

The economy is expected to grow at an annual rate of around 2 percent for the rest of the year, consistent with only 90,000 new jobs a month.

Report: CANADIAN ECONOMY SHEDS 30,000 JOBS IN JULY 2012

The disappointing numbers are a blow to President Barack Obama's re-election campaign. Unemployment is down from a peak of 10 percent in October 2009, but no incumbent president since Franklin D. Roosevelt has faced re-election with unemployment higher than 7.8 percent.

More: 'LESS JOBS' IS A MAJOR CONCERN FOR OBAMA'S ELECTION CAMPAIGN

Republican presidential challenger Mitt Romney declared that "the weak jobs report is devastating news for American workers and American families ... a harsh indictment of the president's handling of the economy."

Obama said August's hiring was "not good enough" and that it's "a long tough journey" to recover from the recession that officially ended more than three years ago.

Stocks barely budged on the bad report. The Dow Jones industrial average rose nearly 15 points to 13,307.

The job market got off to a strong start this year. Employers added an average 226,000 jobs a month from January through March. But they couldn't sustain that pace, and hiring slowed to a monthly average of 67,000 from April through June.

It looked like things got back on track in July, when the government initially reported 163,000 new jobs, but the Labor Department revised those gains down by 22,000 on Friday.

The August jobs report looks even uglier upon closer inspection. The unemployment rate fell because 368,000 Americans dropped out of the workforce.

Report: JOB RATE FALLS FURTHER IN MICHIGAN

"A declining labor force is not (a) sign of an improving economy," says Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors.

Hourly pay fell. Manufacturers cut 15,000 jobs, the most in two years. And temporary help jobs, which often signal where the job market is headed, dropped by 4,900 in August.

The economy lost 7,000 more government jobs last month. Since the recession ended in June 2009, federal, state and local governments have slashed 670,000 jobs, partially offsetting hiring by private companies.

It's the first time since World War II that governments have shed jobs this deep into an economic recovery. At this point — three years and two months— into the nine previous postwar recoveries, government jobs had risen an average of 8 percent. This time, they're down 3 percent.

Most of the government cuts have been made by states and localities. Some school districts in Pennsylvania, for example, have had to lay off teachers after the state cut subsidies.

Kayla Middleton, 26, was one of about 70 teachers furloughed this year by the Reading School District. Middleton says because she has such little seniority "I knew there was no way I was escaping."

The job creation and unemployment numbers come from separate surveys. One asks mostly large companies and government agencies how many people they employed during the month. This survey produces the number of jobs gained or lost.

The other is the household survey. Government workers ask whether the adults in a household have a job. Those who don't are asked whether they're looking for one. If they are, they're considered unemployed. If they aren't, they're not considered in the workforce and aren't counted as unemployed. The household survey produces each month's unemployment rate.

The downbeat jobs news convinced many economists that the Fed will come to the rescue. At its last meeting, the Fed's policy committee decided that action "would likely be warranted fairly soon" unless it saw evidence of "a substantial and sustainable strengthening" of the economy. Many economists expect the Fed to announce a third round of bond purchases at its Sept. 12-13 meeting.

Anthony Chan, chief economist at Chase Wealth Management, said further Fed action would likely send stock prices up, making consumers feel wealthier and more willing to spend.

As bad as things are, they could get worse.

Europe is in or close to a full-blown recession, which could dent the exports that have been one of the U.S. economy's few sources of strength. And a debt crisis threatens to force several European countries to stop using the euro currency. The breakup of the 17-country eurozone could cause a global financial panic as countries replaced solid euros with local currencies of dubious value.

Political bickering in Washington could plunge the U.S. economy back into recession if Democrats and Republicans can't reach a budget deal by the end of the year. Under rules designed to force a compromise, failure to reach agreement would trigger $600 billion worth of spending cuts and tax hikes. The draconian moves would send the economy over the so-called "fiscal cliff" and probably into recession.

Still, Sherry Cooper, chief economist at BMO Financial Group, saw reasons for optimism. Europe could be rescued by the European Central Bank, she says.

On Thursday, ECB President Mario Draghi unveiled an ambitious plan to buy unlimited amounts of European government bonds to help lower borrowing costs for countries straining to manage their debts.

Cooper also noted that "the U.S. housing market is finally on the upswing."

Pinnacle Homes, a construction-management company in Las Vegas, shrank from 20 employees to seven after the housing market collapsed five years ago. Company president Frank Wyatt says business is slowly picking up, but "we're not ready to add anybody yet."

For now, the American economy remains sluggish, and 12.5 million Americans are locked out of jobs. Megan Baker, 23, of Warrenton, Va., has "been applying to jobs almost nonstop" since she graduated from college last year. She hasn't landed one yet. Usually, she doesn't even hear back.

"I have applied to so many jobs that I've lost track," she says. "I try to tailor my resume and cover letters to each job, but now I am just becoming discouraged and want to give up."

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Job Rate Falls Further in Michigan

Labor Day means more than a chance to relax and eat hot dogs. It's also a time to reflect on the challenges facing the American worker.

Those challenges range from the profound to the prosaic: stubbornly high unemployment, bad bosses, lousy summer jobs for youths.

Today, the Free Press looks at some of those challenges.

Not enough jobs

Perhaps the biggest problem facing today's workers is that there is not enough work.

The national unemployment rate of 8.3% in July (9% in Michigan), remains well above the comfort level. True, Michigan's rate has improved a lot since the depths of the Great Recession, when the rate exceeded 14%. But more improvement is needed.

Add in those workers who can find only part-time work, or the discouraged dropouts no longer counted in the work force statistics, and the national jobless rate rises to about 15%.

Charles Ballard, a professor of economics at Michigan State University, said disappointing jobless numbers may represent "the new normal."

"At the very least, it looks like it will take a very long time for us to get back to the levels of underemployment that we had before 2008," he said last week.

At a job fair last week in Dearborn, Dwayne Dixon said he spent 18 years in the food and beverage management industry, at one point overseeing 180 employees.

Then he opened his own restaurant in Southfield, DD & Folks Southern Cuisine, but had to close it after seven years as the economy slowed. He has been unemployed for the last two months.

"My attacks are online and job fairs ... and trying to stay aware of jobs available," said the 55-year-old from Harrison Township. "As with most businesses, they're suffering."

Also at the job fair, Laith Alsunni said he needed to find a job in 25 days. If not, he'll have to leave the U.S. under the terms of his visa.

The 26-year-old Saudi Arabian graduated from Lawrence Technological University in May. Information technology is his desired field.

"I've been looking for different jobs, I've been looking for a job for a year and a half," said Alsunni, who lives in Southfield. "I'm kind of depressed."

And "underemployed" is how Kimarie Williams describes her situation. For the past year, the 54-year-old has been working as an appointment booker at a talent agency.

It's a letdown for the Southfield resident. She's a college graduate who spent 14 years as an inspector at Chrysler. She took a buyout and planned to go back to school for her master's degree but hasn't been able to do it.

"I'm going through a lot of things," she said. "I'm disappointed, discouraged."

Report: Canadian economy sheds 30,000 jobs in July 2012

Jobless for a long time

More than three years after the end of the Great Recession, long-term unemployment remains one of the most serious challenges facing the country. In July, 5.2 million Americans had been searching for a job for more than six months, accounting for nearly 41% of all unemployed workers.

The improving job market has merely dented the number. Last Labor Day, long-term unemployment affected 6 million Americans.

In Michigan, the latest data show 204,000 residents have been out of work for more than six months, compared with 235,000 on Labor Day 2011. The actual numbers are likely higher because those who give up looking are not included.

Many are older workers such as Vincent Calabrese of Fraser. The longtime facilities manager lost his job at a charter school in 2009. He's been trying to get hired ever since.

Now 62, Calabrese said employers tell him they don't want to hire him because they fear he will leave for a better job. He didn't take a job for a company that wanted to pay him about $32,000.

Calabrese said he has used up every cent of his 401(k) retirement savings. This summer, he applied for Social Security benefits even though he's still hoping to find a job. He's thankful his wife has a full-time job.

"I'm not giving up, but I'm trying to be realistic," he said. "I'm still capable of providing a full day's work."

More: Romney spreads Hope and promises more jobs.

Retirement anxiety

Retirement may not be a total bust, but it's no party for those on the job and wondering when they will be able to stop working.

A little over half of baby boomer and Generation X households are projected to have enough money for retirement -- even taking into account nursing homes and long-term care, said Nevin Adams, co-director for the nonpartisan Employee Benefit Research Institute's Center for Research on Retirement Income in Washington, D.C.

But no doubt the other half has some challenges to face -- such as saving more and working longer.

"We think retirement is the top challenge facing workers today," said Nancy Hwa, a spokeswoman for the Pension Rights Center, a consumer organization to protect retirement security.

Bob Pettibone, 56, said he thought he would have been retired by now or close to it. Instead, the Fowlerville High School biology teacher finds himself worried at the very thought of retirement.

"It's difficult for me right now because the rules are changing as I approach retirement," he said.

He's proud to enter his 35th year of teaching this year. Yet because of changes in Michigan's retirement system for teachers, he said he's reviewing such options as contributing more money to maintain his pension benefits or ending up with reduced benefits in retirement.

And like so many workers, Pettibone has seen pay freezes and taken pay cuts during the hard economic times.

"It's frustrating," Pettibone said. "Financially, we're not able to retire."

Even those who are 10 years or so from retirement are uncertain of how much savings they'll really need to cover the bills.

About 28% of transition boomers -- those ages 55-65 -- are concerned that they won't be able to cover basic living expenses in retirement, according to Allianz Life's Transition Boomers and Retirement Income survey.

Crummy jobs

The notion that work ennobles the worker may be true for a lot of jobs -- doctors, clergy, teachers or poets -- but millions of Americans suffer with jobs that are dull, dirty and demeaning.

In recent weeks, the Free Press asked readers on Facebook to post their worst jobs ever. Some of the responses:

Reader Al Larese ranked his worst as a college job doing janitorial work at a local auto plant. "For two weeks, I was sent to fill in for someone at another building where my only work for EIGHT HOURS was to empty the waste baskets and sweep the floor twice per day. The rest of the time there was literally NOTHING to do, and I had to look busy doing it. Those were by far the longest days of my life."

Reader Steven Paquette also hated his summer break job: "scrubbing dorm restrooms" at MSU. "Filthy," he said.

And reader Duke Ellis couldn't stand his summer part-time job as a prison guard. "So many reasons to hate it, and the inmates ain't one," he wrote.

But some bad jobs bring laughter more than tears. Reader Laurel Drozonce filled in as the Easter Bunny at a mall.

"I was too small for the costume so the head kept tilting oddly against my nose and I couldn't manipulate the giant gloves to hand out packs of jelly beans," she wrote. "Plus, it turns out there's something almost universally terrifying about a 6 foot tall anthropomorphic bunny, so kids screamed, kicked and punched to get away. I knew right then I wasn't meant to work with kids."

Bad bosses

One reason some jobs rate as crummy is the boss.

Almost 1 in 2 Americans admits to having suffered under an unreasonable boss, according to a 2011 survey by the staffing service firm OfficeTeam.

Some 55% of those said they dealt with it by either trying to improve the situation or just suffering through it. But 38% said they quit, either immediately or when they had a new job lined up -- a huge disruptive cost for the American economy.

"Bad bosses aren't necessarily bad people, but they certainly can make work challenging for those who report to them," said Robert Hosking, executive director of OfficeTeam, when the firm's most recent survey was released in 2011. "Often, individuals are promoted because they excel in a given job, but that doesn't mean they have the skills to be effective leaders."

OfficeTeam identified five types of bad bosses: the micromanager, the poor communicator, the bully, the saboteur and the mixed bag.

"Learn to adapt," advises Robin Ankton, OfficeTeam's regional vice president in Southfield. "There's a lot of different cultures, work styles, leadership styles, and the quicker someone is to be able to adapt the better."

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