KOLKATA: Heads she wins, tails she doesn't lose. Mamata Banerjee's take-it-or-I-leave-UPA -II posturing appears to be based on calculated strategy that has more to do with West Bengal politics than national politics. Her apparent madness has a method.
On several occasions during the UPA II's battered three-year existence, Mamata had acted as a one-woman opposition squad, stalling various reform measures on land acquisition, retail and divestment. She has also forced changes in the Lokpal Bill. On every occasion, she had forced Manmohan Singh to either backtrack or go on the backfoot.
Mamata believes that this time, too, the tail will wag the dog - that she will again force the government to buckle under. She has an estimate of her real worth and feels she is indispensable for the regime. That's why she has given the government time till Friday to mull over her conditions.
Mamata believes she has nothing to lose if, in the worst case scenario, she has to withdraw her support. In the eventuality of an early election, she is confident of improving her tally in Bengal. This means her importance would only increase in Delhi's hurly-burly of post-election politics, giving her a more meaningful role in national politics.
Mamata's calculated brinkmanship stands in sharp contrast to her similar actions in the past. In 2001, when she quit the Vajpayee government over the Tehelka expose, her decision was whimsical and unilateral. In those days that was Mamata's hallmark. She had thrust her decision upon the party that eventually proved suicidal and pushed her to oblivion.
This time round, she has heeded the overwhelming advice of her party colleagues - that if push comes to shove, quit UPA II. In the three-hour-long meeting on Tuesday, Mamata, contrary to her characteristic style, chose not to force her decision upon the party. Instead, she allowed a dozen of her party colleagues to speak their mind.
Only three colleagues - Saugata Roy, Sisir Adhikari and a new Trinamool Rajya Sabha MP -- advocated caution. Roy spoke in favour of withdrawing the ministers but mutedly opposed severance from UPA II. All other speakers, including Somen Mitra, Subrata Mukherjee and Mukul Roy spoke in favour of immediate withdrawal in the larger interest of the party in West Bengal. All of them said: "Aligning with the Congress may prove catastrophic as the party has become a liability."
Mamata was in for a surprise when former railway minister Dinesh Trivedi echoed the sentiment of the majority and exhorted the leadership to part with the Congress - the same Trivedi who had placed the "nation above the party" while raising railway passenger fares and had gone against the wishes of his party supremo.
So, where does Mamata go from here? Over the past 17 months, she has pulled out all stops to woo the minorities - a vote bank that remains intact for TMC. By now, Didi has realised that after Pranab Mukherjee's elevation as President, there are few takers for her demand for moratorium on state loans. So she has re-focussed her attention on West Bengal politics.
She is not ready to give an inch to the Left, which was eyeing a resurgence by staging a stir against the reforms-friendly measures. On Tuesday under the national spotlight, Mamata hijacked the Left agenda. In her bid to thwart a Left comeback, Mamata has turned more Left than Left.
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Edited By Cen Fox Post Team
